A few years ago I predicted that Turkey would seek to occupy the Sunni parts of Syria. I am, therefore, interested to see what happens with the current Turkish incursion and capture of Afrin. When examining these international conflicts one has to avoid being taken in by the rhetoric which is largely put out for the consumption of the media and to keep the public on side. The fact is that Turkey is invading part of Syria and is currently at war with the Kurds who are allies of and equipped by the USA. The USA and Turkey are both members of NATO and so pledged not to fight each other, but no matter. This does, hoiwever, mean that Turkey's place in the US led alliance is not as secure as it was, which must be music to Mr Putin, one of whose goals has to be to break out to the south and establish Russian allies and neutrals all the way to the Indian Ocean if possible.
Turkey's own ambition is surely to emulate or restore its Ottoman past. The Ottomans controlled the whole of the Middle East and south east Europe. Expansion into Europe is blocked for them at the moment by the existence of the EU, but in the other direction there is a great deal of chaos and states no longer controlled by their governments. Much of this chaos has been created by the USA and its allies, presumably in a divide-and-exploit approach meant to keep down the price of oil. Now that the USA is becoming more or less self-sufficient in oil, this is transmuting into a struggle to prevent others from taking too much advantage of the resulting weaknesses. Russia and Iran, in a tacit alliance, have both been astute in doing so and the Syrian regime has managed to survive and retake ground despite the West's efforts to unseat it. American troops remain in eastern Syria, but with no clear mission beyond supporting the Kurds.
Turkey does have a real interest in defeating the Kurds who would, quite understandably, like to establish an independent homeland including territory taken from Iraq, Syria, Turkey and possibly Iran. However, the current struggle with them also provides a convenient cover for Turkish expansion. One could reason that Turkish control of the Sunni areas might well provide the best solution for the actual Sunni population in Syria, so the Turkish advance is unlikely to meet much local resistance at this stage. If they go beyond this limited objective, however, things will start getting a lot hotter.
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