Brexit is coming.  The government have decided that the best bet for UK survival in the coming times of economic crisis will be to hang onto American coat tails rather than club together with Europeans to withstand the hurricane when it comes. 

I wonder if they are right.  I also wonder what the departure of UK will mean for the future of EU.  It would seem sensible in many ways for EU and Russia to attempt some kind of rapprochement. 

There is, I believe, a major economic crisis coming.  This will not be a single crash from which one can expect a natural recovery, but rather a structural collapse that brings the whole growth oriented capitalist system into question.

In this circumstance, powerful countries (USA, China, perhaps Japan) are likely to seek to shore up their position by exploiting weaker ones.  The EU provides the countries of Europe with a defence against this which they would not have if they could be picked off one by one.

Jacob Moreno wrote a book called "Who Shall Survive" and the broad conclusion was: those who are well connected.  The EU is a fine connection, but it might not be enough.  The EU, therefore, needs allies.  It could strengthen its ties to former colonies - Africa, Latin America - just as UK will try to strengthen its ties to Canada, Australia and India, but geographically speaking, a stronger connection with its immediate neighbour to the east makes a lot of sense. Whether this will become politically possible probably hinges upon the extent to which the North Atlantic Alliance continues to corrode.   

The "great game" is by no means over and we have certainly not reached "the end of history".  The seeming triumph of capitalism in the wake of the fall of the Soviet union has been short lived.  I am not alone in having a sense of foreboding.  Everywhere people sense the threat of ecological problems, even if they do not all see how they work through into economic and political problems.

Meanwhile, all the opinion polls show that by a small majority the people of Britain do not want Brexit and would rather remain part of Europe.  The government is thus swimming against a tide.  They will carry the day in the short run, but will they be vindicated when times get harder.  Only time will tell.


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  • Russia and China seem to be overcoming their disuptes and working together nowdays even militarily. Much of Germany of course was in a full union with Russia until recently.
    As the economic war develops new unions will form. American power is on the wane and even an economic block encompassing Europe and Asia would surely give them world dominance.
    As for where the UK might be I guess just like in Canada and Australia it depends on the government of the day. But Trump needs his war to escape impreachment processes and to feel confident about winning this years US election. How horrid for the people of Iran. If I remember correctly France was pivotal in stopping Obama's war on Iran. This time with Trump's rambling and incoherent speeches and tweets Europe may resist Trumps war and be very much in alignment with Russia.
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