BREXIT PLUS PLUS

So, American democracy still works, after a fashion. You can win the presidency spending a fraction of the amount of money that your opponent dispenses. You can win even though you are at odds not only with the establishment of the country, but even with the establishment within your own party. You can win with popular opinions that defy political correctness and received wisdom. And you don't have to be related to the Kennedies, the Bushes or the Clintons. Of course, whether this will start a new dynasty remains to be seen. The fact is that what can, with some reason, be called ordinary, average Americans have overturned the status quo.

This, like Brexit, creates a fair degree of uncertainty. The world is surely gradually moving into a new phase. A new wind is blowing. The era that started at the end of WWII, in which the US acted as patron and policeman to a coca cola world, is finally coming to an end. Even the fall of the Iron Curtain did not really do that. For a time we thought that Russia was going to become just another European capitalist country, then it gradually became clear that plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose. American policy of keeping Russia encircled and the Middle East in chaos continued. Will it do so now? Many in Washington will no doubt try to keep it so, but this time it really could be different.

If the role of America in the world does change, everything else has to change too. If we work on the assumption that the US cannot go on running up more and more debt forever, then some big adjustment has got to occur. Will Trump do it? It remains to be seen, but it is possible. He has a freer hand than any president for a long time. He has no political debts - he won in spite of all the power-brokers so he owes them nothing. Will America become more isolationist? Probably it will to a degree and this is probably no bad thing. If Trump is true to his word of making allies pay full price for US military protection, quite a few may prefer to pay their own people and do their own defense either alone or in regional alliances. This could be the end of US hegemony. Of course that would lessen US ability to coerce other countries which would mean that it would have to operate more like other countries do. Although this may be disruptive in the sort run, it is surely an adjustment that has to come sooner or later and with this election result it might be sooner.

This will also have knock on effects on political and social culture. What has been 'politically correct' for a long time now may start to look old hat or shrink to the lingo of a fringe. We are back in a time of 'real politique', but this time with a businessman rather than a politician at the helm. We live in interesting times.

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Replies

  • Yes, referenda are not a good way to make decisions.

  • An off-shoot on the shore might be a wonderful development. You have some rather attractive shores in Italy, I've heard.

  • the marine environment in the new blog image is very inspiring.  Are you going to move Eleusis somewhere on the seaside? If yes, I'm ready for helping.... any kind of task :):) 

  • Thank you Massimo. Yes. certainly so. Our priorities remain the same but the reason for them becomes more stark and obvious. Perhaps we are moving into an era of greater realism.

  • Thank you David, great understanding of the situation, and great wisdom.  The wind has changed, in a direction which is opposite to the one we like. Therefore these are interesting times to live. I would add that we have to look at blame, fear and regret for what they are (each of us on his/her own) and at same time to multiply our efforts for mutual understanding and help inside our communities (and outside as well, even more..)

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