It is clear from several recent news items that many of the leading figures in the EU now realise that the EU is under attack and while the threat from the East is obvious it is probably less actually threatening than that from the US. There is a growing sense that the EU must reform, not in the direction of a looser arrangement, but in the direction of cohesion and clear leadership. With Britain out this kind of reorganisation should be much easier since the UK always tried to block any such move. With this mood growing, a great deal will depend upon the elections in several EU countries this year. How outspoken will pro-EU people be? Perhaps a good deal more so than heretofore. The stridency of debate in the USA is likely to catch on. People like Guy Verhofstadt, who will be a leading negotiator in the Brexit talks, are not ones to mince words and he has recently published a book proposing a much closer European Union. I think this is now almost certain to happen. It may be that some countries will drop out, but that will not stop it and those that remain could potentially be formidable. The first real test of a newly galvanised European resolve will, unless something even more dramatic happens first, be the Brexit negotiations and the fact that these come hot on the heels of Trump's victory in the US probably means that the EU will take a firmer line than they might otherwise have done. The importance to Europe now of showing that leaving does you no good is much greater than it was a month ago.
On basic principles, nation building generally requires an outside enemy or several such. I have been predicting for a few years that there would be increasing tension between the US and the EU and now it is happening in real time. Each day it grows. For those who wish to drive forward the unification of Europe, this is exactly what they need. By leaving, the UK puts itself at the mercy of the US, and daily the US more and more shows its anti-EU attitude.
I think we are likely to see reform toward majority decision making, rearmament, and a centralisation of European institutions. The current resurgence of nationalism will fade as more and more leading figures take up the rhetoric of "Europe under threat" with the subtext "United we stand, divided we fall". I was thinking that this might not happen fast enough to affect this year's elections and that the extreme right (fascists) might get in in what for them must seem a rare moment of opportunity, but things are now moving much faster - as sometimes they do. It seems very likely that we are now at one of those dramatic change points - like the fall of the Iron Curtain - when many dominoes fall one after another. If the fascist tide can be resisted then Europe will be in a position to present itself to the world as the leading haven of truly civilised values.
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Very interesting analysis, David, and I agree that this might be happening, as long as the far right parties in Europe do not get into power in the upcoming elections. A strongly united Europe (even if consisting of fewer countries, but committed ones) could serve as a force to reckon with, a real challenge to the rise of the far right in the USA. Despite all its problems, the EU formed out of the ashes of WWII, founded on the principles of peace and unity and with the intention that “never again” could such horrors take place on European soil. Since that time, society in the “core” European countries has developed along more socialistic lines, certainly compared to the USA, where the concept of health care as a basic right is still hotly contested by so many. It would be wonderful to see a united Europe standing up in the world for principles of true justice, equality, compassion and decency: the best that western culture has given us.
The UK, particularly in the years since Margaret Thatcher, seems to have been on the fence, not entirely belonging to Europe because so closely allied with the USA and its own (a bit anachronistic) sense of importance. I saw a picture in the news of Theresa May and Trump holding hands, which reminded me of the days when Thatcher and Reagan used to do the same. (Is this where we are going???)
In all this, I am very concerned about what is going to happen to Ireland! Though Ireland remains pro-Europe in its sentiments, and as the only English-speaking country left in the EU (aside from Malta, which is tiny) it is well positioned to take over some of the former role of the UK in the EU, it is still, however, very dependent upon both the UK and the USA, with its economy and culture tied up with both of them. I just read an article about Trump’s choice for US ambassador to Ireland, in which Trump assures the Irish that his hard stance on immigration has nothing to do with the Irish, that he “loves” the Irish, and Ireland is going to love his programme . . . just wait and see, he says.
I can’t see Ireland abandoning Europe to join up with the UK & USA. But if Trump puts too much pressure on them, who knows? (I never thought Brexit would pass and I never thought Trump would win, so I have a good record of being wrong!) A lot depends on what happens in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If Scotland remains firm in its resolve to somehow remain in the EU, it would be good for Ireland. I really don’t know what will happen, but I am worried. For sure I believe we are looking at a major realignment taking shape in the world at this time.
With scandal enveloping Fillon, who was the front runner, it seems increasingly possible that Macron (who is in favour of centralising some EU functions) may become president of France.
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