For some time now I have been predicting the rearmament of Europe. Now Mr Junker in his address is starting the ball rolling. Brexit facilitates this process. The UK has always been a brake upon it. The balance of forces since WWII has been a deal in which Europe remains weak under the umbrella of US protection so that it can recover and the USA can have the glory. This arrangement has been crumbling for some time. Europe is no longer poor. The USA can barely afford its commitments and is more and more in debt. The USA's attempts to be the policeman of the whole planet have made it gradually more and more unpopular. Many parts of the world where people used to look to the USA as the shining example of a better future now see the USA in a very different light. The Anglo-French intervention in Lybia has rightly come in for a lot of criticism, having been poorly planned, possibly completely unnecessary, and generative of chaos and a great breakdown of law and order. Mr Junker will certainly find support for a more coordinated approach to European military matters.
Where will this lead? Ultimately to a new balance of power in the world in which the USA will no longer be the sole super-power. One could only hope to maintain such a position by winning the wholehearted approval of a good proportion of the world population. That cannot be done by endless bombing campaigns and drone strikes. For the time being, the gradual build up of military power in Europe will be kept formally within NATO and the present arrangements. As Europe becomes more powerful it will reposition itself vis-a-vis the USA and Russia, probably into a 'middle' position. On the face of it, in terms of geographical fundamentals, Europe has more reason to seek good relations with Russia than with lands on the far side of the Atlantic ocean.The whole raison-d'etre od NATO will gradually fall apart. It will probably be the USA that will pull the plug on it at some point because they will object to carrying the cost as the Europeans come more and more to call the shots.
What will Britain do? What it is already doing - reposition itself somewhat closer to its earlier position as a seafaring mercantile nation, building connections in far flung parts of the world, including, but not limited to, the old Commonwealth. Brexit is not just a local adjustment in the position of one nation, it is a symptom of a creeping reconfiguration of the whole international balance of power.
Is this all to the good? It is hard to say. Perhaps so in that it enables countries/blocs to 'be themselves' to a greater degree than has been possible in the past half century.
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