However, if Iran drops out of the treaty and starts enriching uranium on a military scale there is a fair likelihood that Israel will try to destroy those facilities by bombing them. They must know that. Therefore, either they must maintain additional secret facilities or have very high quality air defense systems, or intend to mount a credible counter-attack threat. The last is a highly dangerous scenario for everybody. The second depends on their relations with the Russians, but I don't think they have got it as of now. The first, therefore, seems quite likely.

It will be interesting to see if the EU can negotiate a continuance of the treaty. For it to happen, the EU will have to substantially increase its investment in Iran. On economic ground this would not be a bad policy. On geo-political ones, however, it would drive a wedge between EU and US, moving in opposite directions. This would also create a wedge between EU and UK. I rather think such a wedge is inevitable one way or another sooner or later, but whether this is the Rubicon it is difficult to say.

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