THE ARRIVAL OF HYPERSONIC MISSILES
Russia, it seems, now has missiles that can penetrate the North American defense shield. Deterrence is defense. Russia cannot afford a defense shields so it has developed new offensive weapons instead - a cheaer and more effective policy. The announcement of hypersonic missiles by Russia should bring the stability of MAD - mutually assured destruction - back into balance. Putin has known for several years that he had to do this or let the USA take over completely. if one country ever were to become impregnable while being able to destroy any other country it chose, then that country would, in effect, become the ruler of the whole world. The USA has been moving in this direction ever since the fall of the Soviet Empire. The development of new military technology by Russia has stalled this ambition.
THE COST OF DOMINANCE
However, the ambition itself has been extremely costly. There is the cost of the defense shield, the cost of foreign wars, the ocst of keeping your own people happy, and the cost of keeping allies on side. The political platform of President Trump was originally intended to reduce some of these costs, but, as with all previous recent presidencies, he is, in all probability, simply going to preside over a yet further increase in the already enormous indebtedness of the US government. This indebtedness is itself only supportable due to a variety of mechanisms by which the US, by dint of its number one position, can draw in more than its share of resources from elsewhere in the world. Some would call it plunder, but top nations have always been this way - it is part of the formula. Nonetheless, when the top position is threatened this circumstance can present a big problem and danger. Decline can be the more swift when one cannot continue to borrow or plunder. The French revolution, for instance, was substantially triggered by the fact that the government was bankrupt. Only a few years earlier, France had seemed the most affluent and stable of lands.
TERRORISM IS A SPIN-OFF
The rebalancing of military deterrence means that competition between the most powerful countries remains limited to economics and proxy wars. Proxy wars can be hugely destructive, but they do not affect the home territory directly very much. The concern about terrorism is basically a concern about such spill-over. Terrorists are those who bring the wars that we have started elsewhere back home to us. We don’t mind distant people dying on our behalf - in fact we sponsor it - but we don’t want too much of it happening in London, Paris or New York, which is, of course, hypocritical. However, it seems that humans were ever thus.
THE ECONOMIC BATTLEFIELD
As the US seems to be currently losing the proxy war that it started in Syria and not really getting anywhere in Afghanistan, it is increasingly turning to economic aggression, but this seems likely to be only a rather short term gain, if it gains anything at all. There is a serious danger of a protectionist trade war breaking out worldwide and although this would hurt everybody it would seem, from first principles, that Europe and the USA which both rely heavily upon trade for day to day necessities, would probably be hurt by it a lot more than Russia and China, which are both more or less capable of self-sufficiency in feeding and clothing themselves, and which rely upon trade more to bring in the resources for capital development. Probably a trade war will be averted because so many people are alert to the danger, but if so, where will the frustration go then? Sometimes it seems that there is a quantum of conflict that just gets moved around from one arena to another.
TOWARDS A MULTI-POLAR WORLD
All this, however, does suggest that a large scale change from a uni-polar back to a multi-polar world is slowly taking place. The best that we could hope for would be that such a process takes place slowly and smoothly, but, if history is anything to go by, that is highly unlikely. History tends to go forward in jerks, or, to put it more technically, by a process of punctuated equilibrium. For a long time it looks as if nothing is happening and then suddenly - as with the fall of the Iron Curtain, or the French Revolution - there is a major reconfiguration all at once.
TREND TOWARD AUTOCRACY
China and Russia are gradually expanding their spheres of influence. Europe and America are trying to hold onto as much of their own as they can. All this is difficult and dangerous work. However, the strain is showing in all four major powers. All are in the grip of forces that tend in the general direction of dictatorship, which is what happens when populations feel anxious and threatened. It is like running to mummy when scared. The fact that these trends are called centralism in China and Russia and populism in Europe and America does not alter the fact that the same thing is happening everywhere. We are bracing for the next inevitable shock. It is impossible to say where the pieces will land when it strikes, but the first priority in such situations is survival.
WHAT CAN HAPPEN
Can we even say what form such a shock is likely to take? One distinct possibility is a major economic collapse, such as happened in the Great Depression. Another is a significant political realignment that defies previous taken for granted logic. Thus one pillar of American power is the divide and rule approach that keeps Japan and China in a state of constant tension that then also gets acted out in the smaller north-south tension in Korea. What would happen to the world if these two sides joined forces? A rapprochement between Beijing and Tokyo would completely upset the current balance of forces in the world. It is unlikely to happen, but just contemplating it allows one to see how a dramatic reconfiguration can have consequences all over the planet. More obvious is the Russian build up of alliances in the middle east. Here too, however, the major powers retain dominance by divide and rule. If the Islamic nations ever did achieve unity the knock on effect on the rest of the world would be immense. These scenarios are unlikely, but they illustrate what can happen. The actual change, when it comes, will take us all by surprise.
WHY IT IS USEFUL TO PONDER SUCH THINGS
I reflect upon history as it reveals human nature and saves one from too much judgementalism. The things that happen in the world are not the result of a few people being mad or bad. They are processes that are ubiquitous and rather coercive upon us all. We cannot hope to understand everything, but we can get some perspective. The dynamics of power and complexity play out. The precise form that they take here and there can be influenced by individual human agency, but en mass one can so often say, “Yes, it would be like that, wouldn’t it.” This may give a sense of gentle irony. It allows a degree of objectivity. Mr Putin is not bad for developing weapons capable of killing us all - the alternative is worse. Mr Trump is not bad for putting trade sanctions on China that will eventually hurt America even more than China - he is simply caught up in the logic of history. The people of Europe may be misguided in squabbling so much amongst themselves when the wolves are waiting at the door, but it is all quite understandable. People are like that. This then is the consolation of perspective. One suffers like everybody else, but one’s blood does not boil, one does not throw more petrol on the fire, and one gains in understanding. The balance of terror has been restored in the world. Perhaps we should rejoice - at least for a few more days. Meanwhile, polar ice is melting.
Replies
hi David, thank you.
Equanimity is highly difficult, both as an awakening factor and as a Brahamavihara. It's the point from which we can look at how things are going all over the world while (through?) feeling our fears and our regrets. The latter are even worst than the former: we naturally tend to be "laudatores temporis acti" (...ah the great times of peace and welfare..). But this is useless. And false. No real equilibrium has been seen for a long time on this planet (or in the galaxies). Our minds created such an idea, such a construction. The golden age is a myth (as such worth to be retained and continually re-explored).
We are just frail and lazy "creatures of habit", scared by reality, always at risk of hiding the causes of suffering to ourselves. Equanimity is not an incitation to be brave or "to become enlightened". It's like a big mountain, its there. Somebody can climb it... And a sharp historical gaze can be a helpful tool on such a path..
I suppose some readers have noticed the entire national identity of Australia is under attack from cheating in cricket. The outrage from the pm right throughout society is enormous. So sad that such passions only seems to exist around the sports fields. The polar ice is melting, a trade war is brewing, noticeable not only that Mr Putin boasted of his ability to wipe the US off the map but he told British Pm May to be very careful of how she speaks to a nuclear superpower, we face economic collapse as grain production centres heat more rapidly being in the centre of continents.
I mean really; one can make jokes about cricket and identity stuff but the macro trends of society are lamentable.
Thank you David, I personally find reading your perspective on things very valuable in terms of understanding, pondering further and keeping a balanced outlook.
Bows Mo