Merkel made the comment of the G7 meeting that it was not the seven but the six and the one. This referred particularly to the split between the US and the rest over climate change but also reflected the general tenor of the meeting. I have long predicted division between US and EU and it is gradually now coming to the surface. Changes happen below the radar well before anybody acknowledges them in public. The most telling new developments are the overt swaggering of American leaders that now goes well beyond that of former president Bush who himself took a big step in the direction of vaunting naked American power. Pride comes before a fall, my mother always said, and the fact that US brashness is approaching a crescendo is bound to provoke reaction. Again, initially this reaction will not be overt. France and Germany will lead the EU toward having more independent military power, a more efficient economy and an independent perspective on the world.In the long run the balance of power will shift.
Where will this leave the UK? Successive UK governments have tried to foster UK interests by, according to your view, being a bridge between the US and the EU or playing one off against the other. In an earlier post I used the analogy of having a foot in each boat while the boats are drifting apart. With Brexit, unless there is some unlikely reversal of UK politics, it seems to me that when the time comes to jump the UK will either jump West of fall in the water. Canada and Japan are already too closely tied to the US to have any other option. It is France, Germany and Italy, of the G7 that will form the counter-weight.
The G7 used to be G8. The black sheep is Russia which has been excluded, officially because of its actions in Ukraine. The Ukraine debacle, however, appears to be more of an excuse than a reason and I imagine it is something that would not be that difficult to patch up. It is natural enough that Russia would aid and support Russians, even if they do live in eastern Ukraine, especially given that Ukraine has been part of Russia through much of history. Some compromise could surely be arrived at if there was a will.
There is some truth in the "bridge" idea. Alienation between the US and EU would probably already be much sharper if it were not that there is sympathy in Europe toward Canada, the UK and Japan. Will this bridge hold and for how long? The more arrogantly the American leader strides the world stage the sooner it will crumble. When it does so we shall all suffer, which is why there is still a will to keep it in being even though it gets more and more uncomfortable.
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Well, it is already happening.
BBC: "Europe can no longer "completely depend" on the US and UK following the election of President Trump and Brexit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says. Mrs Merkel said she wanted friendly relations with both countries as well as Russia but Europe now had to "fight for its own destiny".... Mrs Merkel's words were uncharacteristically passionate and unusually forthright. By all means keep friendly relations with Trump's America and Brexit Britain, was the message - but we can't rely on them. Rapturous applause greeted her fiery calls for Europeans to fight for their own destiny. No wonder she's sounding confident. France has a new president who shares her pro free-trade, Europhile values, so there is a positive feeling in Europe that the EU's Franco-German motor is back in business."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40078183