SKRIPAL AND DIPLOMATIC POSTURING

I do find myself feeling very suspicious of the UK actions around the poisoning of Skripal. Of course, there is no way to know the truth of the matter, but it feels like a put up job. Methinks the lady doth protest too much. There seems to be no actual evidence that the deed was done by Russia. The only "evidence" is the announcement by the British authorities that the poison used "was originally developed in Russia". Well, gunpowder was invented in China but that does not make the Chinese responsible for its every subsequent use. How, indeed, did the British know that and know it so quickly? The suggestion by the Russians that the British themselves probably have a stock of the stuff at Porton Down does not seem hard to believe either. It would be much easier to get a dose of the lethal stuff the few miles from Porton to the scene of the crime than it would to smuggle it in from Siberis, or wherever it is that the Russians are supposed to keep their nasties.

One cannot help reflecting upon the fact that the British government is certainly in need of something to rouse patriotic spirits and draw attention away from the Brexit muddle. Also, while one does not want anybody to be a victim of poisoning, isn't it a bit odd that such a huge reaction is being made over the death of a spy. Anyone who has read James Bond can readily think us half a dozen strange plots going on behind the scenes here. Perhaps he was killed by Goldfinger. There has, however, been no real investigation and, if you take it at face value, the peace of the world is being risked - and somewhat put in jeopardy - on the basis of a speculation. Yet, of course, one cannot take anything here at face value. Nobody in this scenario is trustworthy - certainly not any of the governments that are involved.

Being a spy is a risky job. If people who have been spied upon kill the spies, it is not really surprising - are we to believe that Britain and America never do such a thing? Is the message really "Leave our spies alone - just because they steal your secrets you mustn't be beastly to them!" The whole thing is extremely bizarre whichever way you look at it. One rather expects that spies are going to get killed from time to time. The fact that this incident is being used to manufacture a huge diplomatic rift between the Werst and Russia has to have more to it.

Goepolitically, the big risk for the US and UK is that Brexit will permit a rapprochement between the EU and Russia. De Gaulle's vision of "Europe from the Atlantic to the Ural Mountains" (excluding Britain) is not dead. So all this may also be a ploy to try to cement Brussels into the Western camp and alienate it from Moscow. This is likely to work in the short run, but in politics the reaction always comes later.

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  • thank you David.

  • You can find a speech by Putin on the internet from some time ago in which he outlines the geopolitical situation as he sees it, criticising the Americans for abandoning the treaties to not develop new weapons and their attempt to make themselves invulnerable with the "shield". He explains in what seems a quite open way the spot that this puts the Russians in, as they cannot afford to follow suit. He then says that the only option for them is to try to develop weapons that can penetrate the shield so as to render it pointless, and, it seems, they have now done so. I don't think this constitutes superiority. Clearly America still has greater military power. It's military budget is several times that of Russia. However, it does mean that America knows that it cannot dominate Russia with impunity which seems to be the objective. I think Russian objectives as expansionist in a sense but only insofar as to achieve some national security. They have, in effect, been under siege for just on a hundred years and are now finally having some success in breaking out. The Western powers don't like it because they are used to having everything their own way, but that's how it goes.

    I also think that there is something in all this of UK establishing its credentials as an American (and therefore anti-Russian) ally in preparation for Brexit. Britain will have to become glued to the USA if it is to survive. The uncertain element is what effect this will have on the rest of Europe.

    Regarding Russia and global warming, of course, the Russians may think that they (together with Canada) are one of the few places that might benefit from it, given that a good proportion of their land is currently frozen solid for half of the year.

  • We have til now assumed there is time for such global political developments to occur. It is possible for instance that Putin believes industrial and even ecological breakdown is happening and unstoppable. That is unknowable by us but I look closely at sudden changes such as Putin boasting about his nuclear superiority... also something I do not believe has happened before by any superpower.. How might such a new view bring radical change to political norms.  Guess we can only hold onto our hats even a bit more tightly. Oh to be back in the times of that book you mentioned David??

  • Yes, I know what you mean. I don't think that Putin has any intention of directly attacking Western powers. I think he would like to sew confusion and internal conflict to keep the West preoccupied with internal troubles. In the meantime he wants to further Russian interests by getting a foothold in the Middle East and preventing the Americans from having bases there. I can see your point that Russia might have wanted to demonstrate that its power extends even inside the UK "so if you hurt us don't think you will be safe anywhere" - that's possible. If they had just wanted to bump off a spy then I'm sure they have got much simpler ways of doing it then using a chemical that has "From Russia with love" written all over it.

  • There are so many parallels here with the shooting or is it missilling down of the passenger jet over the Ukraine. Immediately Russia was blamed and the 'proof' eventually offered was a truck without a full load of its missiles driving about somewhere unknown.  And this was even more warmongering with many deaths rather than an injury to a spy and his daughter. But....  Putin being ex KGB would take measures to terrorise any potential spies within his midst.  Showing there is no way to escape is certainly effective.  Moreover Putin has been going out of his way to posture the power of his nuclear weapons in recent weeks. I do get the feeling that if Putin is preparing the path for serious conflict then saying to pm May effectively.. so what are you going to do about it? .. does fit in with the events.  So in a sense I hope it is MI6 that did the deed.  The alternative is rather chilling to me.

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