THE MIDDLE EAST IS STILL THE PIVOT OF THE 'GREAT GAME'

[Dharmavidya]

As I predicted a year ago, Turkey in now involved in a genuine invasion of northern Syria. The Syrian war has brought about a stepwise realignment that has more than local implications. The main opponents of the Turks are America's allies, the Kurds. This must be good news for the Russians. It is only a year or two since Turkish-Russian relations were at a nadir after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane. However, President Putin has skilfully turned this diplomatic crisis to advantage. Although still officially a member of NATO, Turkey is no longer so close an ally of the West. The Russians will publicly lament the Turkish action as it constitutes an invasion of the territory of their ally Syria, but one should not take this too seriously. Since the Syrian government did not actually control the area in question anyway this is more for the international audience than the local one. Russia's major geopolitical aim has to be to break the effective encirclement that it has laboured under throughout the past century and it is now closer to achieving this than at any time since 1917. With de facto alliances with Iran and Turkey, and with iran additionally closely connected with the Shia regime in Iraq, Russia has achieved access to the Mediterranean, is not far from having access to the indian Ocean, and has pushed back the de facto frontier between its own and the American sphere of influence. This effectively breaks the seige. Where Khrushchev had to fear American rockets in Turkey pointing north, Putin is now selling to the Turks antiaircraft munitions capable of downing American aircraft. It is no wonder that the USA is suddenly putting it about that it now considers Russia a greater threat than Islamic terrorism, nor that Vladimir Putin continues to be popular in his own country despite (and to some extent because of) international criticism.