- USA: Impeachment? The likelihood of Trump being impeached seems to be increasing. At the moment the storm is revolving around Flynn who is refusing to co-operate with the various enquiries for fear of self-incrimination which does not impart confidence that all is well for the Trump camp.
- UK Election Something rather remarkable seems to be happening here. The Conservative government that was 20 points ahead in the opinion polls three weeks ago is losing support at quite a rate. The gap is now in single figures. If Jeremy Corbyn were to win this election it would be almost as big an upset as Brexit. Even if he can come through the election with a better performance than his predecessor it will change the way he is viewed in the country. While the Brexit question is becoming more fuzzy, the two main parties have been polarising on social and economic policy. Corbyn is the most leftward leader since Michael Foot and apparently a majority of the electorate now think that the Tory party is to the right of UKIP.
- Brexit threat to Universities and to the City. MPs have been hearing from university heads how a hard Brexit would be a disaster for UK universities and how they are already losing talented staff and students. Meanwhile the new French government has been looking into ways to poach financial services from London announcing that Brexit provides them with an unrivalled opportunity that must not be missed.
- Middle East: Trump castigates Iran. That should please Russia. It would be something of a tipping point if either Iran or Turkey were to join the Eurasian Economic Union. I wonder. A lot will depend upon the attitude of the EU. Is the EU willing to defy Trump and build bridges to Tehran? This would make it less necessary for Iran to rely upon the Russians.
- France. President Macron will host Russian Vladimir Putin for talks at the Versailles palace on May 29. The meeting coincides with an exhibition to mark Russian Tsar Peter the Great’s visit to France 300 years ago with Versailles Palace being used as a symbolic backdrop to demonstrate the historic ties between France and Russia. Always interesting to see who a new leader meets first. For Macron, first Merkel, now Putin. Which way is Europe going?
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