TURKISH INVASION?

I have been wondering for some time if/when turkey would invade part of Syria. The area occupied by Islamic State is Sunni Muslim, as is Turkey. The government on the coast backed by Russia is Shiite. It has been apparent for some time that Turkey has expansionist ambitions. A carve up of Syria between a Russian puppet state and Turkey could be the most expeditious way of restoring stability to the area. This might not be ideal from the perspective of London, Washinton or Paris, but it seems 'doable' and there is probably not a lot that any existing or new American administration could do about it.

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  • The Turkish incursion - we cannot yet say invasion - continues and widens. America laments the fact that the Turks are kicking the Kurds out at the same time as attacking IS. However, I suspect that the Turkish aim is actually to create a Sunni Muslim protectorate in the area currently occupied by IS and to push the Kurds back somewhat so as to limit their territory. I imagine that there is in Ankara a plan with a line on a map already delimiting the area that turkey intends to take, much as there must have been when Turkey invaded Cyprus. As I said above, this is not all bad. After the American invasion of Iraq the Sunnis in the area were left in a very difficult position and this is what led to the rise of IS in the first place. Although it would be in the interests of civilisation that IS be replaced, there is no great advantage in the Sunni's coming under the control of the Shiite Syrian government. The Kurds are Sunni but there is an ethnic clash that makes it a not much better prospect for the area to fall to the Kurds. So of the realistic options it is probably better that Turkey take over than any of the alternatives. One can only hope that it is done swiftly and with as few casualties as possible and that the line on the map becomes a de facto border that nobody can realistically challenge. Syria would then have been effectively partitioned and for the first time in years the possibility of a lasting ceasefire could start to look feasible.

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