In politics things tend to remain much the same for a good length of time even though conditions are gradually changing until those changes accumulate the edge of a 'tipping point' and then many things change quite quickly until a new stability is arrived at. The fall of the Iron Curtain was such a moment when many of the 'certainties' that had been clear for most of my life suddenly changed. It could well be that the advent of the Trump presidency is precipitating the next one. Many of the changes that are now likely to occur are ones that one could expect to happen sooner or later, but not have necessarily expected to happen in 2016-17.
If, as now seems likely, we are seeing a scaling back of US hegemony, it leaves a power vacuum. What will fill it? Evidently China and Russia will each separately and in combination be eager to pick up the pieces. The extent to which they will be able to do so will hinge upon the extent to which other countries, seeing the US pulling back, decide to turn to them. Turkey, for instance. Turkey has been negotiating to join the EU. The news today is that those negotiations are probably going to be abandoned. For a long time Turkey and Russia were at odds as historic enemies and this came to a head when Turkey shot down a Russian plane not long ago. Putin demanded an apology and things seemed to be parlous. However, Erdogan not only gave the apology but went to Moscow and did some hard talking. It now seems quite conceivable that a Russia-Turkey alliance may emerge which could become a very powerful force in the Middle East. A tacit agreement that the Sunni areas become Turkey's sphere of influence and the Shia one's russias could serve the interests of both countries and have the effect of substantially shutting the US and Europe out of the game.
East Asia. With Trump declaring that the 'Pacific turn' in US policy is more or less ended, close US allies like Japan and S Korea are likely to aim for greater self-sufficiency and more distant ones like Singapore, Myanmar, Malaysia and so on will reconsider their position and, to some extent at least, are likely to make closer accommodations with China than heretofore.
All this suggests a world in which the continental blocks, as it were, drift apart somewhat. It might not be all bad by any means. It could, for instance, be the beginning of a process for the reunification of Korea. At best, all this might even lead to a new settlement in the Middle East and peace, albeit a peace contrived by a degree of recolonisation. Even more fundamentally, if Russia emerges with a sense that the encirclement that it has lived under for a century now is ending, this could gradually have a marked effect upon Russian culture, mostly for the better. Four generations of Russians have now spent their lives knowing that their country was completely surrounded by a hostile alliance equipped with the most deadly weapons on the planet. To be relieved of this can only be healthy.
Where will this leave Europe? Presumably the countries of Europe will have to take greater responsibility for themselves, militarily as well as economically which they will either do collectively or individually. It may bring about greater European unity since this whole picture is suggestive of a multi-polar world divided into large spheres of influence and scale will count. Collectively the EU is as big an economy as the USA, but the individual countries would not fare so well alone. If xenophobia breaks it up, all are likely to suffer.
Of course, much of the above is speculation, but I think the writing is on the wall. Trump has realised that things could not go on as before and the US has to economise. The consequences will take time to unfold and some of the factors involved will take us by surprise, but it is remarkable how fast things are already happening, considering that Mr Trump has not even taken office yet. Time and tide wait for no man.
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great geopolitical vision! Remarkably clear. And rather optimistic about the new equilibria that are going to be established. May we and our offsprings keep some peace and a minimum of stability while these gigantic processes unfold.
Unfortunately there are signs - in my view - of something not far from the civilizations crises depicted by Arnold Toynbee in his work. The "external proletariats", whose values and interests are in many ways at odds with ours, are pushing to the borders. And the West is now divided and incapable of devising a new weltanshaung and of finding the needed energies for implementing it. (the civilization crises are generated by economic and political reasons, but also by spiritual breakdowns).
Hopefully this could be only an old-fashioned way of thinking, a model not fitting for a "multi-empire" (formerly "globalized") world, in which none of the actors can afford the final solution against one of the others: a new multipolar equilibrium of terror eventually will save us from the worst.
The eco crisis is a major worry. However, if people like Lovelock are to be believed, it is not going to be solved by proportionate response. It needs something very radical indeed. What will actually bring that about is hard to say. It is possible that, given how people are, it will take some disaster much worse than we have so far suffered to motivate such a shift. I don't think that a political swing to the right or left or whatever could be sufficient, do you?